World Seaborne Trade: Entering Into A Role Reversal

Over the past decade, world seaborne trade growth has been dominated by dry bulk and container trade. However, developments in the global economy this year have led to slower trade growth in these sectors, while oil trade growth, which has accounted for a smaller share of world trade growth over the last decade, has emerged as the largest driver of global trade growth in 2015 so far.

Dry bulk trade has been one of the fastest growing elements of seaborne trade in the last decade, recording a compound annual growth rate of 5.6% in the 2005-14 period. Expansion in dry bulk trade volumes accounted for an astounding 61% of growth in global seaborne trade during this period. However, this share is projected to fall to 11% in 2015.

Growth in dry bulk trade in the last decade was driven by rapid economic development in China which boosted imports, particularly of iron ore, coal and other minerals. However, this year, Chinese imports have slowed notably, with coal down 31% y-o-y in the first eight months of 2015, due to falling coal demand and coal quality regulations. This is expected to contribute to the first decline in global coal trade in almost 30 years. Meanwhile, iron ore trade is expected to grow at its slowest pace since 2001, partly as global steel output has declined this year.

Source: Clarksons (date: 15/09/2015)